Generally speaking the Colorado real estate market has seen a bit of a bounce this summer with sales increasing in all categories—from the entry level homes and condos to the high-end market.
National figures showed June with an 11% increase in home sales. But, realizing that a majority of the spring home inventory has been introduced, we may start to see a little slowdown in August/September as old inventory is taken off the market and a smaller surge of inventory arrives.
In other words, there is still much recovery that needs to be taking place. Sellers still need to get a bit more realistic about price and buyers need to recognize a good bargain when they see it.
In general, most homes are on the market longer with discerning buyers waiting for the optimal home at the optimal price. A well-priced, well-presented home can still fetch multiple offers, but it’s got to look appealing to the savvy buyers who are doing their homework. There is no sense in overpricing a listing – a buyer won’t even give a home the time of day if they sense the seller is being unrealistic. Yet at the same time, there seems to be no better time to snatch up bargains in Colorado at all price points. We’re seeing five to 10 percent reductions in properties that are sitting on the market and in many cases the final offers are coming in below those reductions. That’s not to say buyers should throw out ridiculous numbers. Some sellers who don’t have to sell are holding firm, but time is running out for others. So, while it may take longer to get the buyer and seller to agree to terms, deals are happening and with open minds on both sides, we might start to see more positive movement for all.
For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers are still not giving away property but there are great deals available.
This week the National Association of Realtors released its monthly existing home sales report (http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/08/strong_uptrend?LID=RONav0021) noting “For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors®.” The report went on to note, “Existing home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.”
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he was encouraged. “The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,” he said.
Ultimately these are all very positive signs for our market and are a strong sign that we are moving in the right direction towards a housing recovery. Having said that, it’s important to keep things in perspective and not celebrate too soon. We all need to be realistic with our pricing, buyers and sellers.
A few other interesting articles of note for the week:
· Home Prices On An Upswing In The Second Quarter Of 2009 According To The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices; Case-Shiller
· New Home Sales Blast Past Expectations; CNNMoney.com
· The Housing Market: Has It Turned the Corner?; TIME Magazine
· Mortgage Applications Increase In Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Mortgage Bankers Association
· Home Market Shows Signs of Life as Declines Slow; Bloomberg
Now let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
- Boulder/Longmont—The Boulder office reported new listings in the Boulder County market took a 3% dip last week and new sales fell by a substantial 19%. Despite that, showings were up 25% last week so there is still a tremendous amount of buyer activity. Agents at the Boulder office report a sharp rise in creative and complex offers over the past week with a number of buyers asking for things like some degree of owner carry, right of refusal or extremely delayed closings. Some offers on listings as low as 70% of the asking price have been seen as well. This, in an area where the average sale price to list price ratio averages 96% in the under $1,000,000 market. The Longmont office reported once again, the showing activity is increasing. This "week over week" the mid week are the ones that had the highest increase. Weekend showings were off just a bit. Buyers are seriously looking. The start of school usually brings a brief decline in showings and contracts. Not this year! Some of the good press about the Denver area is filtering to Longmont. Our employment situation here is holding steady. Colorado has become a more affordable place to live. More companies are realizing our affordability makes this a great place to relocate their business.
- Evergreen/Conifer—No information reported.
- Denver Central –We are seeing an increase in the higher priced homes going on the market and receiving offers, which is a positive sign. The Denver real estate market continues to get positive national and local press on a weekly basis. We've seen an increase in showings for August and our August 2009 numbers are outpacing August 2008. More buyers are taking advantage of the $8000 tax credit with the November 30th deadline approaching fast. We are also seeing appreciation of home prices in several neighborhoods. The lower end market has certainly shifted to s seller's market with properties moving quickly.
- Devonshire— No information reported.
- Douglas County—Our Southwest Metro office reports showings were down this past week especially over the weekend. Agents attribute this to school starting and last minute vacations. Open houses were very successful and we had two walk-ins. We are seeing sellers ready to list their properties in September and this is a good thing as inventory is low at this time. We're also seeing buyers wanting to take advantage of the $8000 tax break before it goes away. Our mortgage rep is very busy and this is always a good sign. Properties are still not moving quickly above the $350,000 level. We're encouraged with the local and national news about the real estate market.
- El Paso County—Colorado Springs reports our listing inventory and sales activity have been steady for a while now. Showings went down slightly last week and we need to watch if this is a sign of reduced activity because the end of summer is approaching. It seems like banks are starting to approve more short sales as we were able to get some prepared for closing. Prices in most neighborhoods are stable for now.
- Larimer County—The Fort Collins/Loveland offices reported she summer season has nearly passed us by, but that doesn't mean that real estate sales have come to a halt. There's still some good inventory available in the Northern Colorado market. Both buyers & sellers need to be realistic about price & be willing to negotiate terms and conditions in order to put a sale together. Home prices are stable & recently Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae declared all the markets in Colorado stable. This should loosen some of the restrictions on conventional loan financing for buyers. Finally, time is running out to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit. Only a little over 90 days left to take advantage of this great opportunity.
- North Metro—The North Metro office is experiencing increased activity with regards to new contracts. This is due largely to the urgency created by the first time buyer tax credit program. In addition, listing inventory should be picking up as some of the terms in the office are in the process of closing on some larger opportunities. The Agents are doing a great job of staying in front of their clients and working every lead. This is reflected in the increased dividends as we move into the 4th quarter.
- Parker—What an incredible increase in showing activity last week - almost double from the week before! Our sales activity has increased as well and the listing inventory is going down. We are confident that this trend will hold past the end of summer and start of most schools.
- Southeast Metro—The SE Metro office is experiencing a slight decrease in showing activity which can be attributed to the start of the school year for the surrounding districts. Our average days on market for listings is steady at 79 days and we are averaging 25 showings before a property is selling. Inventory continues to drop and there continues to be a shortage of desirable properties below $250,000. Luxury properties are seeing additional traffic as 10% of our Previews properties are currently under contract.
- West Lakewood—The West Lakewood office is reporting "skinny" inventory by all price points. Buyers have more clarification and realize that the inventory is more limited than it has been. The reduction of inventory is making buyers more focused on their choices.
Please note that next week I will be taking a brief hiatus from Weekly Market Watch but I will return the following week.
Until then,
Make it a good one,
Chris Mygatt
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Colorado
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