I have to say, it was a positive week for our industry. It seemed everywhere you looked, the media was reporting on some sort of positive indicator relating to the real estate market rebound. Last week I posed the question, is it a blip on the screen or are we finally out of the woods. It seems this week, the answer to the question is much clearer.
For starters, Good Morning America ran a very good interview on Tuesday about the state of the housing market. Liz Ann Sanders, the Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab was interviewed. Essentially what she said was that we are in the process of bottoming out and “you have to go through less bad on your way to good.” As I’ve said in my weekly updates, we’re seeing pockets of significant strength and the housing market is really showing signs of recovery.
Our industry was the first to be hit by the market downturn and if all continues on this path, we will be the first out.
Now if I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times. The turnaround won’t be happening overnight. We probably won’t see housing numbers start to appreciate anytime soon. But what we can relish in is Sanders’ conservative viewpoint that “we have to see less bad for a while before we start to see some real positive gains.” What we have right now is the bottoming out of our market. Speculators and investors are competing with first time home buyers. Those individuals are going to continue to gobble up the inventory—both REOs and regular, now much more affordable starter homes. As we see this inventory deteriorate (again, over time), we will continue to see that trickle into our mid-level and upper-end price ranges.
Also interesting to note this week was the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller 20-city index was released and in it, home prices in May posted their first monthly increase since the summer of 2006. Prices rose from April in 13 of the metro areas tracked, notably Cleveland, Dallas, Boston and the Bay Area.
The news followed reports showing sales of newly built and existing homes rose in June for the third consecutive month. New home construction, though still weak, is the best it’s been since the fall.
Although the index is rising nationally and locally, I would caution that this doesn’t necessarily apply to homes across the board. For the most part, the local gains are reflected more in the low-end side of the market, though we are showing signs of improvement in the mid and upper end.
The 20-city home price index rose 0.5 percent from April to a reading of 139.8, but it was still 17.1 percent below the reading of 168.6 in May a year ago. It was the fourth consecutive month that the index indicated prices have turned the corner and are heading back toward positive territory.
And with that news in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
- Boulder/Longmont—The Boulder County market showed a marked decrease in properties under contract, down by over 26%. At the same time, showings increased by 16%. Listings countywide remained steady again, not varying by more than three per week over the past month. Agents report more and more first time buyers determined to get bargains in the short sale and foreclosure markets. Many understand that there is fierce competition for the better properties and are willing to try multiple times until they are able to get a property under contract. Longmont reports the word "normal" has many definitions these days. Normal means that interest rates are holding for a while..Normal means that buyers want to buy. Normal means that 15% of all deals written will not close. Normal means that 30% of all deals written are for short sales whose acceptance can be as long as 2-4 months out. Normal means that the appraiser will not appraise that property for the contract price. Normal means the loan process is like negotiating a mine field with last minute conditions added to the buyer. The real estate industry is doing its part for the recovery of our economy handling all the NORMAL issues and getting buyers into homes quickly.
- Evergreen/Conifer—Four listings went under contract during the past week. Showing activity continues to be strong with heavy activity in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. In addition, showing activity in the $1,000,000 plus category is experiencing an increase over prior months. Conifer reports we had one new listing during the week totaling $550,000. Two of our listings went under contract one of which was a single family home in Bailey on 40 acres with S. Platte river access. Two buyers put under contract for a townhome in Evergreen and a patio home in Denver . Showing activity decreased to thirty-five during the week.
- Denver Central—No information reported.
- Devonshire—We're hoping that the activity this past week is an indication of things to come as we continue through the summer. It seems that buyers are out there looking at homes, making buying decisions and getting settled in their new homes. Although appraisals are still an issue, transactions are getting done. Sellers are now getting off the fence, staging their homes and getting them on the market. We're seeing some movement in the upper end - a good sign. It is still all about the price on houses and we have seen many price adjustments in the market-many of those houses are getting both activity and offers. Once again, we are feeling positive and looking forward to a very busy August.
- Douglas County—Our Southwest Metro office reports showing activity has increased since the 4th. We are hearing success stories from floor as well as open houses. Lead Router has been very good this past week. We are seeing increased activity in the homes priced below $400,000. There are still a lot of first time home buyers looking for "the deal.” The short sales seem to be taking as long as 90 or more days to close and some listings are seeking short sale approval. We are hearing from buyers that they are waiting for the new crop of foreclosures that are coming in August/September.
- El Paso County—Colorado Springs reports sales activity has increased over the last week and the amount of new listings was steady which will help reduce the listing inventory that has built up in July. Not only are we expecting a number of bank owned properties to be released into the market within the next weeks, we also expect more short sales to be approved by the banks starting this fall.
- Larimer County—Our Fort Collins/Loveland office reports our market looks flat, not down, not up, we are flat. One area of increase has been our listings taken. We had a huge week last week and brought twenty-eight new listings to the market. This was the largest bump we've seen in one week since early June. Interest rates are still low and homes priced below $350,000 are moving. Buyers at the lower price points are competing hard for short sale & bank owned properties. Some homes that were under contract via short sale are back on the market because it is taking longer and longer due to backups at the banks. Keep in mind that today's buyers are highly educated on the market & well priced homes sell quickly, usually for the most money the market will bear. This is why you are seeing so many competing offers on homes. Buyers know a good deal when they see it.
- North Metro—No information reported.
- Parker— Activity is slowing down slightly. We have to see if this is already the trend towards the end of the summer or if we will experience another surge towards the end of August. The REO Agents are waiting anxiously for the lift of the moratorium and the release of many bank owned listings.
- Southeast Metro—The SE Metro office hosted a very successful Open House Blitz last weekend. We advertised 60 Open Houses in both the Denver Post and on several online sites. Traffic through the open houses was strong and we even put some deals together. The general consensus is that there are lots of buyers out there not only looking to purchase a home but who are not being represented by a Realtor. Our office is set to close 200 transactions this month & our listing inventory continues to decrease.
- West Lakewood—Our Agents are busy listing and showing properties. Consumer confidence has most definitely increased. Our first time home buyers now have somewhat a sense of urgency to purchase and close to be eligible for the $8000 tax credit and to get under contract without multiple offers on any property that is somewhat acceptable.
This week I’ll leave you with a few interesting articles from the week:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20%3AIND
http://sbk.online.wsj.com/article/SB124878477560186517.html
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-07-28-home-prices_N.htm
Until next week,
Make it a great one,
Chris Mygatt
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Colorado
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